Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1795
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 26 2025 22:05:32

ACUS11 KWNS 262205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262205=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1795
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...Southwest to northeast Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262205Z - 270000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southwest to central
Montana may produce sporadic severe gusts through early evening.
This threat is expected to remain sufficiently limited to preclude
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, thunderstorms have been slowly
deepening/maturing across southwest to central MT as they develop
within a modestly moist/deeply mixed air mass. Based on observed
dewpoint depressions (around 30 F) and recent forecast soundings,
LCLs are likely around 3 km, which will favor strong sub-cloud
evaporational cooling and downdraft acceleration within ongoing
convection. Additionally, ascent ahead of an approaching, but
low-amplitude, upper-level wave will continue to promote
thunderstorm development over the next few hours. As such, the
potential for a few severe gusts should increase across the region,
especially if a more consolidated/organized cluster emerges out of
this activity as hinted by recent CAM guidance. Given the unfocused
forcing for ascent and recent convective trends, confidence in
where/when/if such as cluster emerges is low.

More robust/long-lived severe storms, including the potential for a
supercell or two and/or organized cluster, may exists across
northeast MT where richer low-level moisture is promoting MLCAPE
values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear is
adequate (30-35 knots) for storm organization. Weaker forcing for
ascent casts uncertainty on storm coverage, but trends will be
monitored given the favorable convective environment and the
potential for a focused corridor of relatively higher severe threat.

...Moore/Mosier.. 07/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8WGkD2uQs7NFStabhr5sWU99MQYZxw0eMlWvwCpEscVStEaMHmfiZBAJU8znogKZJTz57tw5C=
ZNvFcTMgCXqhrH3RNI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   47120441 46780483 46480569 45600977 45610994 45441148
            45541209 45841265 46261291 46621275 46981229 49010822
            49050506 48940443 48720417 48310404 47840404 47550413
            47280426 47120441=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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