Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1792
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 26 2025 20:49:02

ACUS11 KWNS 262048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262048=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-262145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1792
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262048Z - 262145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity across the high terrain will move
eastward into the evening with potential for damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been steadily developing
across the high terrain in Colorado/Wyoming over the last couple of
hours. Dew points in these regions are low in the mid 40s, with
better moisture located across Nebraska into southern South Dakota.
CAM guidance suggests that activity will develop along eastward
moving outflow by late afternoon/evening. Downstream, temperatures
have warmed into the upper 90s to 100s, with dew point spreads
around 40-50 degrees. Though deep layer shear remains weak, large
dew point spreads and steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote
some damaging wind potential. In addition, the low level jet is
progged to increase through the evening with the deepening of a
surface low across South Dakota. While watch issuance is not
anticipated, trends in this area will be monitored.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 07/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5mzd3QZ2RHpGPnd_O-GMU8c7G-Qr9A1QmPnBTiJO5YH2YP14QD1344xCbKrmWhEOOFFp-Z8kv=
uKr5fADBbOlO6l4WS0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40260402 41080408 41840406 42470402 43020290 43000219
            42740161 41530106 40210064 39650105 39350162 39430319
            40260402=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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