Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1789
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 26 2025 06:49:59

ACUS11 KWNS 260649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260649=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-260815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1789
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...eastern ND and far northwest MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 260649Z - 260815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A swath of strong to severe gusts may occur across a
portion of eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota before
dawn. With the threat area likely to be confined, a watch is not
currently planned. But it could be considered if greater
intensification/organization becomes evident.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster from Eddy to Stutsman Counties in
east-central ND may be maintained to the east-northeast towards a
portion of the Red River Valley before dawn. This cluster has
evolved into a more north/south-orientation with recent convective
development along its southern flank. This is nearly perpendicular
to the deep-layer shear vector and enhanced 2-7 km AGL westerlies
sampled in recent BIS VWP data. NDAWN observations confirm a 10-13 F
temperature gradient within the small cold pool and unperturbed warm
sector ahead of the outflow. This setup may yield a swath of strong
to severe gusts in a focused corridor over the next 2-3 hours.

...Grams/Hart.. 07/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9Pp77XK7EdS1epaCH9SU9NevrFhyeETCzP6o8aL6mOWlBkGMh_mv5ikZwXf3_YppCyUWjP_Ja=
tcbDQk98DKJfg5v-ME$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48349676 47999645 47569630 47219653 47059736 46979885
            47269910 47809905 48139794 48349676=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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