Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 26 2025 03:29:31

AWUS01 KWNH 260329
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-260830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0802
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1127 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Areas affected...Northern and Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260327Z - 260830Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will tend to increase in
coverage over the next few hours. Locally very high rainfall rates
and slow cell-motions will likely foster some areas of flash
flooding, including for some of the more sensitive urban areas.

DISCUSSION...The late-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
few clusters of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms moving
across northern and central IL. This activity is associated with a
mid-level vort center interacting with a quasi-stationary front
and a modestly unstable, but very moist airmass pooled along it.
In fact, the 00Z/26 RAOB from KDVN depicted a PW of 2.19 inches
which is a daily record, and it also showed a tall skinny CAPE
profile.

Some increase in moisture convergence ahead of this shortwave
energy and proximity of the front should foster some general
increase in the threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the
next few hours. Given the relatively weak steering currents, the
convective cells that do evolve in the short-term will continue to
be slow-moving and will be capable of very heavy rainfall rates.

Some rates with the ongoing activity just south of Rockford, IL
are on the order of 2 to 3 inches/hour, and these high rainfall
rates will remain likely given the deep tropical environment that
is in place.

Uncertainties exist with the exact details of the placement of the
heaviest rainfall in the near-term, but based on the latest radar
and satellite trends, areas near Rockford in particular will be
subject to potentially very heavy rainfall totals that may reach 3
to 5+ inches. This is likely to cause some urban flash flooding
concerns.

Adjacent areas of northern and central IL, will likely may see an
expansion of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next few
hours. Other metropolitan areas such as Chicago and Springfield
may also be impacted potentially be heavy rainfall overnight and
may have urban flash flooding concerns as well.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6_1shEsMWL8Ul2LbjfccofFpUaqo4A1N-6rJanpzYi-8iKQONAX1p2-bS9oExZ5160OZ=
mGUU2KxAsDG5X8XDrj61H6k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...LSX...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   42688966 42548798 41718752 40158801 39428926=20
            39289052 39709113 40579056 41339016 42059042=20
            42479025=20

=3D =3D =3D
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