Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1787
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 26 2025 03:06:57

ACUS11 KWNS 260306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260306=20
ILZ000-260430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/northern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 260306Z - 260430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind is possible into late evening.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster recently intensified across
north-central IL, in conjunction with an MCV and in the vicinity of
a weak surface boundary. Moderate buoyancy may continue to sustain
this system in the short term, with a some threat of locally
damaging wind. Increasing CINH and decreasing buoyancy downstream
should tend to limit the longevity of any threat with this system.=20

Farther south, storms have recently intensified across west-central
IL, where moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) remains in place
this evening. Deep-layer flow is generally modest, but veering wind
profiles are supporting effective shear of 20-25 kt, and some
transient storm organization is possible into late evening. Locally
damaging wind should be the primary threat with this convection,
generally near/south of where it intersects the outflow from the
cluster to the north.

...Dean/Mosier.. 07/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5QxFRZvXj61xhCbrt2infwRHJ_jnXZc9ZUyyKSizITBpD_DbUuFeWdD0mz3-eNJtolznQT69s=
cP1b-WOB-z5X5d44tM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40558809 39408926 39078991 39139014 39489070 39879094
            40508956 40768916 41258923 41498854 41438794 41078778
            40558809=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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