Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1786
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 26 2025 01:54:28

ACUS11 KWNS 260154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260153=20
NDZ000-260300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of western into central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543...

Valid 260153Z - 260300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts remain possible with ongoing storms in
northwestern and southwestern ND, and a couple instances of severe
hail are still possible.

DISCUSSION...Two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are in
progress; one over northwestern ND, and the other in southwestern
ND. The northwestern cluster has shown bow-echo tendencies, and has
produced measured severe gusts with an established cold pool, with
20-30 F temperatures deficits noted via the NDAWN surface
observational network. However, the 00Z BIS observed sounding and
mesoanalysis depict overall weak vertical wind shear in western
portions of the state, particularly at low levels. BIS radar data
also shows the northwestern cluster becoming outflow dominant,
perhaps being undercut by the cold pool given poor countering
low-level shear. It is unclear how much longer the short-term severe
wind threat will last with this cluster.

Severe wind reports have yet to be received by the southwestern
cluster. Nonetheless, severe gusts are possible under the condition
that further upscale growth and intensification occurs, as was the
case with the northwestern cluster.

...Squitieri.. 07/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4-QjCksDTBCKauN8X-D3Lh2O3CoImOR1EaKJGC876kAJbcHS3Klyc64h09uGk63Oam1I5t6r0=
p08wxHHErFrSJeMj_8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   46160397 48090312 48560274 48890178 48960057 48530001
            47889988 46939987 46220028 46080118 46040338 46160397=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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