Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 26 2025 00:03:25 AWUS01 KWNH 260002 FFGMPD MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0801 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 801 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas into Northern Missouri Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 260000Z - 260600Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand through the evening and train SW to NE from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri. This convection will likely contain rain rates of 1-3"/hr, which through this training could produce 2-4" of rain. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...Reflectivity on the regional radar mosaic this evening indicates that convection has had trouble organizing so far today, but is beginning to get better aligned to a stationary front analyzed by WPC. Forcing for ascent is impressive as an MCV noted in WV imagery pivots across northeast KS, driving height falls into the region, coincident with the RRQ of an intensifying jet streak from KS into NE. This ascent is acting upon impressive thermodynamics reflected by SPC RAP analyzed MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg overlapping with PWs measured by GPS that are as high as 2.2 inches, a daily record for eastern KS. These thermodynamics are being drawn northward on an increasing LLJ out of the south, which will not only support intense rain rates but also lead to enhanced mesoscale ascent through isentropic upglide atop an outflow boundary and the wavering front. All of these features will act more significantly over eastern KS and into MO during the next few hours, leading to an expansion and intensification of thunderstorms. This is reflected by simulated reflectivity in many of the available high-res CAMs, but especially the recent RRFS. Although there are latitudinal differences in where the heaviest rain may occur, in addition to variations in how organized convection will be in the next few hours, it is expected that any storms that develop will train to the NE on mean 0-6km winds that are aligned to the front at 15-20 kts. While this indicates that storm motion will be progressive, the presence of 25-35 kts of bulk shear will organize cells into clusters, and Corfidi vectors become increasingly right of the mean flow in response to the slow veer of the LLJ. This is further indication that cells will redevelop within the greater thermodynamics and train/repeat to the northeast. Rainfall rates within deeper thunderstorms should reach at least 2"/hr (30-40% chance from the HREF), and may exceed 3"/hr at times as shown by the HRRR 15-min rainfall accumulation. These intense rain rates are supported by the robust thermodynamics, so any training of these rates could produce stripes of rainfall reaching 2-4". This rain will be falling across primed soils from 24-hr rainfall that has been generally 1-4", locally as much as 6+", leading to compromised and vulnerable soils even outside of urban areas. Any repeating or training cells with rainfall of this intensity could cause rapid impacts from flash flooding. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!75UdwR0bNbSCIBxshHbetgNT6gjaWpnCBMdOBoh_lhTMw3zkQO3qk42xXcrKu1p54Ozj= ycDmLD6wmiwwGErhkRnCXUw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 40499565 40459475 40339357 40309256 40109195=20 39699189 39379223 39059286 38699381 38249467=20 37759547 37249604 37209617 36989678 37049713=20 37369718 37799715 38129722 38329725 38809747=20 39199759 39839738 40379636=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .