Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1785
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 23:45:49

ACUS11 KWNS 252344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252343=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-260145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1785
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Montana into central North
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252343Z - 260145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase into the evening in tandem
with storm coverage, especially if MCS upscale growth occurs. Severe
hail may accompany discrete storms, with severe wind occurring with
more linear structures.

DISCUSSION...A supercell is in progress across east-central MT, with
more multicellular storms in progress to the northeast, along the
MT/ND border. These storms continue to advance eastward amid a more
moist, unstable, less capped airmass, characterized by 3000-4000
J/kg MLCAPE. A weak 500 mb vort max embedded in the larger scale
mid-level flow is currently traversing central MT, and as it
advances eastward, it may encourage an increase in storm coverage.
Despite weaker vertical wind shear, enough buoyancy is in place to
support a severe threat. The ongoing, more discrete storms may pose
a threat for severe hail. Severe gusts may occur with any storms,
but may become more likely if storm mergers occur, or if an MCS can
develop. A WW issuance is possible, especially if signs of upscale
growth are observed.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9bkhJrhIfky24KdvoPKcPARgGTzjSZwuMpcGFccOQTPQydLtNjb0TVmkZYGo-Dw52yMzvnHr_=
87XGUVcxV-zRTTu6jU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46510537 47570491 48050447 48420364 48590023 48189958
            47769930 47349917 46799926 46429985 46110121 46110238
            46170404 46200475 46510537=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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