Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1783
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 22:22:06

ACUS11 KWNS 252220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252220=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-260045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Areas affected...western/north-central OK into extreme south-central
KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252220Z - 260045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms with localized strong/damaging gusts are possible
into this evening.

DISCUSSION...One storm has developed across north-central OK late
this afternoon, with other cumulus building in the vicinity of a
surface boundary from west-central OK into south-central KS.
Midlevel lapse rates are weak, but strong heating of a moist
environment has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to near above 2500
J/kg, and storm coverage should increase into the early evening.=20

This region is on the southern periphery of modestly enhanced
midlevel flow associated with an MCV across northern KS. Effective
shear of around 20 kt and steep low-level lapse rates could support
weakly organized storms capable of localized downbursts and strong
outflow winds into this evening.

...Dean/Mosier.. 07/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!97VmJ45olW2yK2abMzUZK9w5g7rPoP3aUeeLcmnCHahKC92_UFdIGzqk6a4P4xiArLr8qCxy2=
GaW3kKj66OM_I5smes$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35189911 36639831 37459766 37459710 37319643 36789609
            35539757 34959863 35189911=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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