Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1782
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 22:11:07

ACUS11 KWNS 252210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252209=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1782
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into western Nebraska
and southwestern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252209Z - 252345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few of the stronger storms may produce isolated severe
gusts and perhaps hail through the afternoon and early evening.

DISCUSSION...Relatively isolated thunderstorms have developed off of
the higher terrain, from eastern CO into western NE and southwestern
SD, driven by afternoon peak heating and orographic lift amid eroded
MLCINH. These storms may meander eastward over the next few hours,
where surface temperatures/dewpoints in the 90s/50s, beneath 8+ C/km
tropospheric lapse rates, support 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical wind
shear is weak, and the weak forcing also suggests that storms should
remain isolated, so the severe wind/hail risks should be sparse at
best.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-318mgdBNwP5XiMF2V7TUNHQI4uuS7sI7nt25O9Xav5TylANOwG2YnbRSqvzmsxSz3HTExV9v=
f8-znLT4rzguHYdXyI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39580488 40790486 41070484 41800431 43490344 44250342
            44490319 44380240 43530196 42370195 40760250 39360296
            39060315 38940351 38970422 39580488=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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