Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1781
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 21:58:26

ACUS11 KWNS 252157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252157=20
NVZ000-CAZ000-260000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeastern California into
northwestern Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252157Z - 260000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may accompany the stronger downbursts
through the remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Pulse-cellular storms have developed over the past few
hours along the CA/NV border, amid 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates and
up to 1000 J/kg SBCAPE. RAP forecast soundings depict inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles, suggesting that downbursts in the stronger
storm cores may support isolated strong to severe thunderstorm wind
gusts through the afternoon and early evening hours.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4ryBK-JTCs_uDjrfbcoLilaC6-9qRSdnFT9Tvk7x9C_oY3Zru-c5H6HW1KyZXaHaNxtAm-HCx=
EUkkTRY0KME9PSNoD8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...

LAT...LON   38031978 40472136 41272154 41642112 41672022 41461928
            41051875 39981850 39221853 38361917 38031978=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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