Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1780
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 21:48:26

ACUS11 KWNS 252148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252147=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-252315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana into western North
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252147Z - 252315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind and hail may accompany the
stronger, sustained storms. A WW issuance is possible pending
greater coverage of storms.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across portions of eastern
MT over the past few hours along a diffuse boundary, with
particularly robust development noted on the Prairie/Custer County,
MT line. Clusters of high-based thunderstorms have also developed
over the higher terrain, and will drift eastward with dry downburst
potential.=20

Ahead of the east MT storms, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25 kts of
effective bulk shear are in place. Should these storm sustain
themselves, multicells and perhaps supercells will be the dominant
storm modes, accompanied by a risk of severe wind and hail. Given
modest forcing for ascent, it is unclear how widespread storms will
become ahead of a diffuse boundary. Should a larger number of storms
develop and mature, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9KaTyp7YAZNmTxM7zPqG0aQIAcCGnciB1htPiJCSt1ZlXDSrGRrJnNkiHKUGWrd5Oqwj9Oz4H=
xOLiodkjIXDpnDIq2E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46600943 46930873 47250780 47730631 48270523 48700428
            48870363 48770296 48050245 47170209 46240222 45460318
            45230527 45150655 45240767 45420816 45890910 46600943=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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