Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1778
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 20:11:27

ACUS11 KWNS 252009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252009=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas and northwestern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252009Z - 252215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and a few brief tornadoes are
possible this afternoon across parts of eastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. A watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...An MCV is currently situated over north central Kansas,
with an outflow/differential heating boundary across parts of
southeastern Kansas. Due to daytime heating, particularly south of
the boundary, along with surface dewpoints generally in the low to
mid 70s F, inhibition has been removed across the region. There is
some enhanced flow aloft round the MCV, which has provided ~30 kts
of effective bulk shear. Low-level shear is generally fairly weak,
though there is some enhancement in the weak easterly flow north of
the differential heating boundary. Given modest deep-layer shear,
multicell clusters with transient supercells are possible through
the afternoon, and any supercells would carry a risk of a brief
tornado, particularly where low-level shear is locally enhanced.
However, overall weak low-level flow and poor lapse rates may limit
the tornado threat. In addition, the atmosphere is quite moist, and
the water loading in downdrafts may lead to a risk for damaging
gusts as cell cluster with time. Trends are being monitored for a
possible watch.

...Supinie/Guyer.. 07/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9hb4RA1eBf9T5W8HwxgQIxaaChwZeI2eeYdlwnfjahFaJxG-75Lg4fKLoRa5AF9pmLFoTncZq=
JNTnDhag1o-wFSfTOA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38229493 37879563 37489607 37639661 37839679 38399686
            39359647 39849562 40099458 40199385 40069334 39089302
            38539392 38229493=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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