Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 18:33:56 AWUS01 KWNH 251832 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0799 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern KS into adjacent MO River Valley Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 251830Z - 260000Z SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding are expected to impact portions of central and eastern KS into the adjacent MO River Valley through 00Z. Rainfall rates of at least 1-2 in/hr will be likely along with at least isolated 3 to 5 inch totals. These rains falling atop portions of the region which recently received heavy rain will increase the potential for excess runoff. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 1815Z over central KS showed a few slow moving thunderstorms south of Hays, located under a mid-level vorticity max/trough axis located over the region. Weak deeper layer mean winds of approximately 5-10 kt were supporting slow cell movement with MRMS hourly estimates near 1 inch. Instability was relatively lower directly under the mid-level vort center and southwestward extending trough axis, but moisture remained high across central to eastern KS with SPC mesoanalysis data from 18Z showing 1.6 to 2.1 inches (higher to east). 18Z mesoanalysis also showed MLCAPE ranged from ~500 to 1500+ J/kg from central to eastern KS with varying degrees of inhibition but daytime heating was helping to decrease inhibition. Short term forecasts from the RAP show an increase in 850-700 mb flow just east of the mid-level vorticity center, oriented SW to NE. The combination of decreasing inhibition, forcing ahead of the slow eastward moving mid-level vort/trough and some degree of upper level divergence/diffluence associated with a northern stream jet max over the upper MS Valley, will lead to an increasing coverage of thunderstorms over central and eastern KS through 21Z. Additional development may occur first along a SW to NE oriented convergence axis noted in surface observations and visible imagery from northwestern OK into southeastern KS. While deeper layer mean winds are stronger over eastern KS compared to beneath the mid-level low, the increased low level flow will carry the potential for storms to repeat and locally train over the region and some of these higher rainfall rates could overlap with heavy rain which impacted the region over the past 24 hours which has lowered flash flood guidance to an inch or less in 3 hours for some locations. While coverage may not be widespread, areas of flash flooding are expected to become likely over central to eastern KS through 00Z, possibly extending as far east as portions of the recently hard hit middle MO River Valley. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!49jZlvitesQVGq8vXakNhsg_7UFmKhG0voZhR8s2ZZXaqUssDYyyl-y4jMGbwWLvgoUG= eFWA-HnrDMS4F0sXgjDcA3E$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 41079632 40739524 39629424 38429448 37619590=20 37079727 37139819 37519905 38239953 39619956=20 40729809=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .