Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1777
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 17:06:25

ACUS11 KWNS 251706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251705=20
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-251830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Areas affected...from eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251705Z - 251830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop after 19Z from eastern
Pennsylvania into southern New England, with increasing coverage
through about 00Z. Some storms may produce damaging gusts later this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal surface trough will deepen this afternoon
within a zone of strong heating extending from southern New England
southwestward across PA/NJ. Within this zone, a moist air mass
remains with PWAT of 1.75 to 2.00".

Although shear is marginal for organized severe storms at or below
35 kt, the combination of favorable timing with peak heating, steep
boundary layer lapse rates and mean winds of 30-40 kt through a deep
layer suggest a few corridors of aggregating storms producing strong
to locally severe gusts.

...Jewell/Guyer.. 07/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_jU1NufiYt0kO1Z7uKtPihdxtou2ZuwZXKQtpL7lyHb6AgczcdgX_Ypzd6hdnFJ7suuXQqFdC=
BR7MFaoJdwAWoCLhoo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   41617043 41367081 41037127 40267261 39727351 39517424
            39867538 40017584 40447624 40767643 41257634 41407583
            41557505 41667453 41877373 42167277 42527166 42827075
            42717051 42447026 42067011 41617043=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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