Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 07:48:26 AWUS01 KWNH 250747 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-251300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0797 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 345 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...Eastern KS...Central MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 250745Z - 251300Z SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early morning hours across portions of eastern KS through central MO. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely due to locally high rainfall rates, and sensitive soil conditions from earlier rainfall. This will include an urban flash flood threat to the Kansas City metropolitan area. DISCUSSION...GOES-E GeoColor RGB satellite imagery in conjunction with radar continues to show an expansive area of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting eastern KS and stretching through portions of central MO. The activity continues to focus generally in between two key boundaries of interest which includes a well-defined and long-lived outflow boundary stretching from northern OK through southeast KS and central MO, and a stalled synoptic scale front farther north from central KS through northwest MO. A very moist and at least modestly unstable airmass continues to lift up over a pseudo cold pool in between the two boundaries, and this coupled with favorable moisture convergence and relatively divergent flow aloft should tend to support a persistence of the ongoing convective clusters for at least a few more hours. PWs across the region are very high with values of 2.25+ inches, and MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted. The latest RAP analysis shows as much as 30+ kts of south-southwest low-level jet interacting with the aforementioned boundaries and surface cold pool. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms over the next few hours will still be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour, and this will be heavily driven by the anomalous nature of the high PW environment over the region. The latest hires model guidance shows some disagreement with the details of the additional rainfall potential over the next few hours, but generally supports the potential for an additional 3 to 4+ inches of rain where the stronger and slower moving cells concentrate. The latest satellite and radar trends suggest that areas around the Kansas City metropolitan area, and especially the eastern and southern suburbs of the city over the next couple of hours may be at greatest risk of seeing these heavier rainfall totals materialize. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely at least over the next few hours going through dawn, and especially with sensitive soil conditions from earlier rainfall. This will also include a notable urban flash flood threat to the Kansas City metropolitan area and adjacent suburbia. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-_vO_0FtYJe-_hFwPvvuAXZtkVOS0OmnVSL1xjfj9GS39FMwT5s_aioCoXyMziQX44Q3= 7oequkt4lo9bUQ7CbZ9dgvs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 40089334 40059265 39769224 39429209 39109208=20 38789235 38449302 37949455 37669568 38049565=20 38709621 39019734 39449624 39869462=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .