Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 07:01:43 AWUS01 KWNH 250701 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-251300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0796 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles...Northwest OK...Central and Southern KS Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 250700Z - 251300Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early morning hours across portions of the central and southern Plains. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely given slow cell-motions and high rainfall rates. DISCUSSION...Clusters of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms continue to impact areas of the TX/OK Panhandles and also adjacent areas of northwest OK through southern and central KS. The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a rather large area of cold convective tops associated with this activity. Radar and satellite shows evidence of a mid-level vort center ejecting across the TX Panhandle which is slowly lifting northeastward while also interacting with a quasi-stationary just to the north across southwest to central KS. A southerly low-level jet of 30 to 35+ kts is noted ahead of this energy nosing up across western OK and toward southern KS, and the latest RAP analysis still shows a ribbon of MLCAPE values reaching 1000 to 2000 J/kg across parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and into southwest and central KS where the front is situated. Rather strong moisture convergence is in place, and there will likely be a continuation of slow-moving convective clusters at least through the early morning hours until the remaining instability is exhausted. Rainfall rates over the next few hours will be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour given the moisture transport and available instability. Slow cell-motions will continue and there may be some additional localized rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches which is supported by the latest HRRR and RRFS guidance. Given the earlier rainfall, and the additional potential over the next several hours, additional scattered areas of flash flooding are likely. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5up4n_wPBW2xtHUxT7BUXszS9UEaKfWQVER45vkEyJwhy0wSfeeNfLQKtBdz-YqJ6rfA= imWftWuPwV32khwGTtnM9IE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 38889791 38769648 38249583 37819571 37339614=20 36289776 34829885 34669965 35260017 35750116=20 36660137 37600077 38389946=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .