Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 06:03:46 ACUS01 KWNS 250602 SWODY1 SPC AC 250600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota. ....Northeast into the northern Mid Atlantic... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across southern Quebec and northern New England later today. A cold front will move across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic through the day and into the evening. Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Storm coverage is somewhat uncertain due to veered low-level flow and relatively weak frontal convergence, but isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the front. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will be favorable for some storm organization, and a few organized clusters and/or marginal supercells may develop, with a primary threat of damaging gusts during the afternoon and evening before convection weakens or moves offshore. ....Northern Great Plains... A midlevel shortwave trough and surface low will move eastward across parts of AB/SK today. A surface trough will extend southward from the low across the northern High Plains vicinity. Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the surface trough, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far west as eastern MT this afternoon, with very strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) expected over the Dakotas. Stronger large-scale ascent will be across Canada, resulting in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and evolution during the afternoon and evening. The bulk of 00Z HREF guidance depicts at least isolated development near the surface trough across parts of southeast MT, potentially aided by one or more low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima moving through southwesterly flow aloft. Some guidance also initiates storms farther east into central/eastern ND, within a weakly capped but also weakly forced environment. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt. Initially high-based convection across eastern MT may intensify as it moves eastward into ND, with some potential for development of a storm cluster or MCS capable of producing strong to severe gusts. Any diurnal development across central/eastern ND would pose a threat of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, given modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. A Slight Risk has been added where there is sufficient consensus among CAM and global guidance for storm development within a generally favorable environment. ....Central Plains into the Midwest... Multiple MCVs may impact areas from the central Plains into the Midwest later today. The most prominent of these is expected to move northeast across parts of KS, within a very moist and unstable environment. Deep-layer shear may become sufficient for organized clusters or marginal supercell structures, with a threat of localized damaging gusts. Depending on the extent of low-level SRH enhancement (which varies among guidance), a tornado may also be possible. Other MCVs may move from parts of MO/IL into IN/OH through the day and into the evening. Their impact on organized severe potential is uncertain, but if sufficient destabilization can occur ahead of these features, then localized wind damage will be possible. ...Dean/Squitieri.. 07/25/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .