Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 02:47:32 AWUS01 KWNH 250247 FFGMPD ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-250845- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0795 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1046 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...Northern OK...Southern and Eastern KS...Central MO...Western IL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 250245Z - 250845Z SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and locally expand in coverage overnight. Relatively slow cell-motions and high rainfall rates are expected to result in scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an elongated axis of broken shower and thunderstorm activity impacting portions of northern OK and southern KS through central MO and far western IL. Some of the activity is focusing along a well-defined and long-lived outflow boundary which is situated ahead of a quasi-stationary front draped across the region. However, there are convective clusters noted in between these boundaries with the aid of a very moist/unstable airmass overrunning the convectively-enhanced cold pool behind the main outflow boundary. A very moist environment is in place with PWs of locally 2.25+ inches, and instability based on the latest RAP analysis is greatest across portions of northern OK and southeast KS with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg. This instability pooling along and just poleward of the outflow boundary is being reinforced by 20 to 30 kts of south-southwesterly 850/925 mb flow. A combination of isentropic ascent over the aforementioned cold pool and favorable low-level convergence should continue to help sustain clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next several hours which will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms. The latest hires model guidance however is in terrible agreement heading into the overnight period with the placement of the heaviest rainfall. Several recent runs of the experimental WoFS suggest the heaviest rains over the next 3 to 6 hours will be over areas of northern OK and southeast KS which also best represents the latest radar and satellite trends. However, earlier HREF and REFS solutions have strong signals for heavy rainfall farther north over areas of eastern KS into west-central/northwest MO. The HREF however does have some locally heavy rainfall over southeast KS, and with stronger concentrations of instability focused here along the outflow boundary, this area at least for the next several hours will likely be one of the more dominant areas for organized convection and very heavy rainfall. Locally as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected over the next 6 hours, and areas of flash flooding will be likely. This will especially be the case given locally sensitive soil moisture conditions and somewhat elevated streamflows. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_4TjSEyVmn00SHrPtHnVQ53Lo3V4qApEGf-gu-pvPd7s5xTr6EfETLbPOA7gLXnr1-Jj= MkGccmS4IlWbE0RCv6f7rfM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...OUN...SGF... TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 40369035 39698994 39049065 38209265 37629419=20 37129513 36119694 35769852 37039891 37480015=20 37849983 38469817 38829690 39259524 39749363=20 40219206=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .