Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 01:42:02 AWUS01 KWNH 250141 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250700- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0794 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 941 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, far Western Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 250139Z - 250700Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing across the Texas Panhandle will continue to expand and move chaotically into tonight. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are likely, which through this slow and chaotic motion could produce 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this evening shows a rapid uptick and expansion of cooling cloud tops associated with deepening convection across the Texas Panhandle. These thunderstorms are blossoming in response to several overlapping forcing mechanisms, including an MCV drifting eastward out of New Mexico and multiple outflow boundaries (OFBs) tracking across the region. The accompanying ascent related to these features is tapping into still robust thermodynamics characterized by PWs above around 1.5 inches (measured 1.48 inches on the 00Z KAMA U/A sounding) which is above the 90th percentile and approaching the daily maximum, overlapping MUCAPE that is analyzed via the SPC RAP to be above 3000 J/kg. Thunderstorms that have rapidly developed in the past hour are featuring radar-estimated rain rates from KLBB as much as 2.5"/hr, leading to 1-hr rainfall measured by MRMS of 2-3 inches, and FLASH unit streamflow above 400 cfs/smi. A few flash flood warnings have been issued in response to this activity. The CAMs have generally struggled to handle the current activity, but the recent 23Z HRRR and 00Z HRRR both have captured better the current situation. This suggests that their evolution can be trusted, and they depict convection congealing into clusters through mergers/collisions and in response to increasing bulk shear which may reach 35 kts in the next few hours. At the same time, the MCV coming out of New Mexico pushing E/NE is expected to sharpen, leading to subtle height falls for additional ascent, and this will occur on top of an increasing 850mb LLJ. The overlap of this will result in numerous thunderstorms with gradual motion northward on 0-6km mean winds and Corfidi vectors pointed north at 5-10 kts. With rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr expected (HREF 20-30% for 2"/hr, HRRR 15-min rainfall as much as 1"), this slow and at times chaotic motion could cause 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts approaching 5" possible. Soils across this region should have some filtration capacity as reflected by NASA SPoRT 0-10cm RSM that is just 20-40%. but 3-hr FFG is still locally compromised to 1.5-2"/hr. These intense rain rates, especially due to the slow storm motions, could still overwhelm the soils, and FFG exceedance probabilities peak around 30% between 03Z and 06Z. This indicates that while the greatest risk will likely be across more urban areas, the slow motions of these intense rain rates could cause flash flood related impacts anywhere across the Panhandles and into western Oklahoma tonight. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-uhNddpgZFRAG9EwG2DdVsym50ON0jVPD10WhNUsFrlJcPrz-S_dkoicKp_D3_alKROb= n_hTxTmmXtqOgbgG4ZNwGMg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...PUB... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 37420069 37329932 36879894 35899869 35069876=20 34249906 33799975 33650129 33670219 34090287=20 34780306 35750313 36350305 37210233=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .