Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 25 2025 01:02:27

ACUS01 KWNS 250101
SWODY1
SPC AC 250059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
KS/NORTHWEST OK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts remain possible tonight
from parts of Missouri into the lower Great Lakes region. Isolated
hail and strong to severe gusts are also possible across parts of
the central and northern High Plains.

....Parts of MO into the lower Great Lakes...
A loosely organized MCS has developed across parts of northeast MO
this evening. This system may continue moving east-northeast along a
surface boundary tonight, aided by very rich downstream moisture and
moderate buoyancy (as observed in the 00Z ILX sounding). While this
system has largely remained subsevere thus far, and low/midlevel
flow is forecast to remain relatively modest, locally damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out as it approaches parts of central/northern IL
and northwest IN later tonight.

Farther east, convection has generally weakened or moved into
Ontario from southern lower MI this evening. Strong storms remain
over parts of southeast Ontario, and these storms may approach parts
of western NY with isolated strong to locally damaging gusts before
subsiding.

....Central/northern High Plains...
Widely scattered strong to locally severe storms may continue
through at least dusk across parts of the central and northern High
Plains, within a moderately unstable environment. Effective shear of
25-35 kt will support potential for hail with the strongest discrete
cells, while isolated strong to severe gusts also remain possible,
especially if any notable outflow consolidation occurs later this
evening.

...Dean.. 07/25/2025

$$

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