Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 24 2025 23:11:03 AWUS01 KWNH 242309 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250430- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0793 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 708 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 242307Z - 250430Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move slowly across the Southern High Plains through this evening. Rainfall rates of more than 1"/hr are possible at times, leading to 1-2" of rainfall in some locations. This may cause flash flooding. Discussion...The GOES-E experimental day-cloud microphysics RGB this afternoon shows impressive Cu and Cb development within rapidly intensifying updrafts across much of eastern NM and southern CO. This activity is rapidly expanding and intensifying in response to anomalous PWs of 1.2 to 1.4 inches, driven primarily by full saturation in the 500-300mb layer shown on the 18Z ABQ U/A sounding, but also within a monsoonal moisture plume of 500-300mb LPW above the 95th percentile according to CIRA. This is helping to additionally moisten the column (and PWs are above yesterday's values at this time.) Within this plume, modest but convectively enhanced shortwaves are noted in the WV imagery lifting northward across eastern NM, driving locally enhanced ascent in the otherwise modestly forced environment. MLCAPE has also shown a steady increase across the region, now analyzed via the SPC RAP to be 1000-2000 J/kg to additionally support thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. The recent HRRR runs suggest that convection which is currently ongoing across the high terrain will weaken in the pulse environment, but also begin to shift slowly eastward and off the terrain on mean westerly but weak winds. As this activity dives east, it will be acted upon by the aforementioned shortwaves as well, likely leading to additional development and a subtle increase in effective bulk shear to 25-35 kts. This could result in more organized and intense clusters of storms forming through mergers/collisions, which will additionally perk up rain rates. Both the HRRR and UA WRF suggest northeast NM is favored for this evolution, but anywhere across the Southern High Plains could experience clusters of storms or repeated cells through this evening. Rainfall rates within this convection will likely (>60% chance) exceed 1"/hr, with local rates as much as 2"/hr possible leading to 30-min rainfall that could be 0.75-1.25 inches. The generally slow and chaotic motion of these cells, and their resultant heavy rainfall footprints, will be falling across vulnerable soils noted by 1-hr FFG that is as low as 1-1.5" in many areas. This is even outside of sensitive terrain features, burn scars, or urban areas, which could have an even lower threshold for developing impacts. This suggests that flash flooding potential will continue for several more hours until activity weakens and pushes east tonight. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7v843nJ2PhFTWBJZ6fvglvLsDsICjKI6yoIHhlW6C6lNcptzNPITi3UMGeLTr3BZQuA2= wkaiG0m7sspdVW3268ULRK4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...PUB... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 38020366 37930272 37600224 37160219 35930229=20 34840236 33890239 33260242 32620254 32340288=20 32310339 32530384 32910418 34560456 36430481=20 37310468 37810436=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .