Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 24 2025 22:30:31 AWUS01 KWNH 242230 FFGMPD MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-250230- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0792 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 629 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma through far Western Missouri Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 242228Z - 250230Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front will gradually increase in coverage and intensity through this evening. Rainfall rates will reach 2-3"/hr at times, which through training could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon depicts=20 steady expansion and intensification of reflectivity stretching from north-central Oklahoma into northwest Missouri. This activity is blossoming within an extreme thermodynamic environment characterized by PWs measured by GPS of over 2.3 inches (well above the previous daily record) collocated with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Into this environment, forcing for ascent is gradually intensifying along a pre-frontal trough demarcated by convergence along the nose of the 850mb LLJ which is subtly backing in response to a shortwave ejecting from New Mexico and the distant but still notable RRQ of an upper jet streak over the Upper Midwest. Rainfall rates within ongoing convection have been estimated via local radars to be as high as 2"/hr, and MRMS has measured pockets of 15-min rainfall above 0.75", suggesting at least 3"/hr rates are already ongoing. During the next few hours, the activity along this trough is expected to expand and become nearly continuous as reflected by high-res CAMs. At the same time, the persistent and robust thermodynamic advection into the boundary will help intensify the activity, with ascent also maximizing as the cold front squeezes southward forcing more intense isentropic lift. Together, this suggests that storms will become widespread with rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr (locally higher at times according to the HRRR 15-min rainfall graphic) leading to hourly rainfall that could exceed 2" (30% chance from the WoFS and HREF neighborhood probabilities). 0-6km mean winds of 10-15 kts aligned parallel to the approaching front indicate that cells will likely lift progressively northeast, with redevelopment likely SW into the intense thermodynamics causing net motion that will be much slower at times. This is a classic training environment, with even more pronounced training developing later this evening as the LLJ begins to veer more to the SW causing Corfidi vectors to veer and collapse. Where training occurs in the next few hours, rainfall of 2-3" with locally higher amounts is possible. This will occur atop soils that still appear to have some high filtration capacity as reflected by 0-10cm RSM that is only 30-50%. However, the intensity of these rates could still lead to rapid runoff, and 3-hr FFG exceedance probabilities peak above 40% from both the HREF and REFS, additionally indicating the increasing flash flood risk. The risk will be even greater should any training move across urban areas this evening. This is likely the beginning of a prolonged event with increasing flash flood potential, and it is expected that additional MPDs will be needed to highlight the threat as it evolves tonight. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7eZ8h8zESVVQeSiXC7bltgp3ViGZpmQrrPtg4EBfiWThiNn2T3kmUrPMtHQqDreF2GjW= NG24F8wbRMd9KYjx6zKL944$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 39309492 39149416 38719393 38079440 37059612=20 36239759 35689885 35679983 36180010 37379938=20 38369784 39079629=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .