Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1772
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 24 2025 19:42:20

ACUS11 KWNS 241942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241941=20
COZ000-WYZ000-MTZ000-242145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Areas affected...parts of eastern Wyoming and northern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241941Z - 242145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may produce a few instance of large hail and a few
severe gusts across portions of eastern Wyoming and northern
Colorado. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convection has developed along the mountains across
parts of eastern Wyoming and northern Colorado, where diurnal
inhibition has eroded. Farther east across the High Plains, some
inhibition remains for mixed-layer parcels, but additional heating
should continue to erode the MLCINH as the afternoon progresses.
Kinematically, the region is on the southern periphery of a modest
mid-level jet. This should provide sufficient shear for at least
transient supercells, and in some places low-level wind profiles
favor left-moving supercells. Given the long hodographs and steep
lapse rates with low freezing levels, some hail is possible with the
strongest storms. Shear decreases with southward extent, so this may
put a limit on the southern extent of the hail risk. With time,
storms may begin to cluster, and these clusters may also produce a
risk for severe gusts given the relatively dry boundary layer and
steep low-level lapse rates. Given the expected sparse coverage of
severe weather, a watch is not anticipated.

...Supinie/Guyer.. 07/24/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6N4Y8DxSq2F5MYLX5hDYqqQRLRKSTsW1K_4Hsd_2wlRUcLGsYZZcU6RPngcSWcN2jwyZwHR52=
XqAWN1TvvqK_EFfpOQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   39540601 40210611 41300617 43490650 44510673 44900650
            45020582 44810504 43510459 42510437 41880423 40910409
            39590395 39050428 38760466 38770542 39120588 39540601=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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