Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 24 2025 18:07:24 AWUS01 KWNH 241807 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-242330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0791 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 206 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...central/northern NM into southern/central CO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 241804Z - 242330Z SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible across the higher terrain of central NM to central CO into the evening hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in an hour or less will be possible. DISCUSSION...GOES East visible satellite imagery at 1730Z showed the early stages of shower/thunderstorm development along the Rocky Mountains from CO into northern NM. OSPO LPW imagery showed middle and upper level moisture values had lowered compared to yesterday for most regions from central NM into central CO, but moisture in this layer was the same or higher in northeastern NM and southeastern CO. However, LPW imagery also showed lower level moisture has increased across eastern CO and portions of northeastern NM, confirmed by rises in surface dewpoints over the past 24 hours, to the west of a surface low between LBL and GAG and southwestward extending trough axis into southeastern NM. Despite the change in moisture compared to yesterday, these PW values remained modestly anomalous at 0.5 to 1.5 standard deviations above the climatologically high late July averages. 17Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE was less than 500 J/kg for the highlighted MPD region but continued surface heating and a forecast increase in the low level upslope component into northeastern NM and central/southeastern CO later today is expected to aid in CAPE and thunderstorm development through 00Z. Deeper layer mean winds, represented by both the 0-6 km AGL and 850-300 mb layer, were fairly weak from central NM into central CO at ~5 to 10 kt which will contribute to slow cell movement. Generally weak 0-6 km bulk shear values of less than 20 kt should tend to limit cell organization and duration for most areas with a pulse mode most likely for stronger cells. Slow movement and high moisture should allow for high rainfall rates for a few of the stronger cells with 1 to 2 inches in 30-60 minutes expected. These higher rates will pose a flash flood threat if overlap occurs with locations that have received heavy rain over the past few days or over typical sensitive burn scar regions, urban and otherwise flood-prone locations. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-0fBFlDk3RvWLFWFb7Zz-0_iBVE6cxSKGAqOBOFDrYjB8L05BtRtdtklvwT2t4Cv61sG= GuUp-kU7c34932VA7AisdnA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...PUB... ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 40690538 39600516 39280451 39120390 38240350=20 37450339 36810342 35900405 35310485 34770521=20 34400566 34200631 34300699 35020718 36380703=20 37070718 37850713 38650682 40550625=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .