Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 24 2025 17:32:36

ACUS02 KWNS 241732
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid
Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across
parts of the northern and central Plains.

....Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic...
A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and
parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40
kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern
Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward
across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered
thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing
pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt
of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line
segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced
low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and
expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the
region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the
overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and
sufficient deep-layer flow/shear.

....Northern Plains...
Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates
a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern
Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven
high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains,
before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air
mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse
rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms
initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts.
As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster
is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate
area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where
warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support
damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk.

....Eastern KS...
Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact
wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of
diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a
clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms
including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be
possible with the stronger storms that can evolve.

...Weinman.. 07/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.