Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1770
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 24 2025 14:53:20

ACUS11 KWNS 241453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241452=20
MIZ000-241615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Areas affected...northern Lower MI vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241452Z - 241615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible
through midday.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized small bow located over northern Lake
Michigan will continue to develop eastward into northern Lower MI
through midday. This activity is developing near a convectively
enhanced vorticity max within moderate southwesterly flow ahead of a
shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest. Effective shear magnitudes
around 30-40 kt will support continued organization of the bow and
any additional storms that may develop along the southern flank as a
surface boundary shifts east with time. Heating ahead of this
convection has allowed temperatures to already warm into the upper
70s to low 80s as of late morning. With dewpoints in the 70s, a
strong instability gradient in in place across northern Lower MI.
Storms will track along the instability gradient. The 12z RAOB from
APX suggests strong to severe wind potential is possible given
moderately strong flow from from about 1 km through 300 mb. Some
dryness also is noted between 850-700 mb, possibly enhancing
downdraft strength. Given radar trends, at least a small rear-inflow
jet appears to have developed as well. A severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed soon for portions of the discussion area into early
afternoon.

...Leitman/Guyer.. 07/24/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6-_XREmSJf78QKgeLzjJszOdpksZJYA8E9tEiuXBFuX-1qzj1SpMElxcUGqyMMKULcSC2vZJJ=
JwjrpxPtol5knK9R3I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...

LAT...LON   45848552 46018479 45878380 45688321 45398275 45118286
            44828313 44768355 44818509 45108596 45418599 45748582
            45848552=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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