Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 24 2025 08:47:51

AWUS01 KWNH 240846
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0790
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast NE...Far Northeast KS...Northwest
MO...South-Central to Southwest IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240845Z - 241300Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours
may result in a few areas of flash flooding due to high rainfall
rates and some cell-training concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling
convective cloud tops over portions of far southeast NE, extreme
northwest MO and southwest IA. The convection over the last 1 to 2
hours has been tending to gain some organization near an outflow
boundary and also just ahead of a front.

MUCAPE values are on the order of 2000 J/kg, and the convection is
focusing within a corridor of rather strong moisture convergence
which is being supported by a southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+
kts. The latest MRMS data shows rainfall rates increasing with the
cooling cloud top trends, and with PWs of 2.0 to 2.2 inches, some
of the rainfall rates may reach 2 inches/hour at least over the
next few hours.

Some cell-training concerns with localized backbuilding of
convective cells can be expected going through dawn. Favorable
Corfidi vectors are noted in the latest RAP analysis for this to
happen, and as a result, some rainfall totals going through at
least 12Z (7AM CDT) may reach 2 to 4+ inches.

Overall, the antecedent conditions across this particular region
are rather dry, but if sufficient cell-training occurs over the
next few hours, there may be a few instances of flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8vlmEoArWi6aJWWuFsXOtlAvSkhQI1xEr_giBTy8OTMV6l6FWbtrJODI2Xk5vjlkZQhA=
Rn3JoYcJPCo6fI3w09DfAfQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41619240 41179194 40729246 40269343 39769469=20
            39449605 39609700 40189703 40809595 41449412=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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