Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1769
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 24 2025 05:47:19

ACUS11 KWNS 240546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240546=20
IAZ000-240715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1769
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Areas affected...central to eastern IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 240546Z - 240715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe gust threat may accompany a
portion of a QLCS, mainly centered on the US-30/I-80 corridors
during the next few hours. Expected localized coverage suggests
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Some surge within a broader QLCS has occurred within
the apex of outflow intersections northwest of the DSM Metro Area,
with measured severe gusts at personal weather stations in Carroll
County earlier this hour. A swath of 50-65 kt inbound velocities
around 2500-3000 ft AGL have recently progressed into Greene County.
Given ample buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and a 40-45 kt
rear-inflow jet per OAX VWP data, it is plausible that a confined
swath of strong to embedded severe gusts may persist over the next
2-3 hours. This is likely to be centered on the US-30/I-80
corridors, where the portion of the line remains more progressive
atop preceding outflow from downshear convection.

...Grams/Gleason.. 07/24/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5mjxdwY4a9pAIFgDBj1U6dmIKAD5SSKZgFhIjZMj4qFk_XL3N_0U1MkVSuVuqVLKPwL7x-Kda=
iADYQJxmPA03otezrk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42259315 42589230 42719178 42689149 42409130 42119149
            41669170 41519291 41499374 41629411 42009402 42079379
            42259315=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.