Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1768
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 24 2025 02:29:17

ACUS11 KWNS 240229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240228=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-240430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1768
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...Lower Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539...

Valid 240228Z - 240430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539
continues.

SUMMARY...Gusty winds may accompany storms across eastern Nebraska
into extreme western Iowa. New severe thunderstorm watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Frontal convection has grown upscale and matured into
an MCS over eastern NE early this evening. Leading edge of this
complex is likely producing gusty winds as it propagates slowly
across eastern portions of ww539. 00z sounding from OAX exhibits
substantial PW (~2 inches), strong buoyancy, but weak deep-layer
shear. With an expanding precip shield it appears this activity will
easily propagate across the MO River, potentially spreading
downstream along the frontal zone as it sags south across IA. While
substantial instability resides across this region, greatest severe
risk should be gusty winds, and mostly sub-severe, and a new ww is
not currently planned.

...Darrow.. 07/24/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_2eA9h_NRSTeiWmz1XMC6w6ngYfOppa5DuruM0LKZgNnt6VRd3HELDwbwGFVfPI77udgGwncN=
_RFwAd-ycIAP08uHOM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   42069790 42489556 41289519 40839764 42069790=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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