Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 23 2025 22:55:42

AWUS01 KWNH 232255
FFGMPD
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0787
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...Central New Mexico, Central and Southeast
Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232254Z - 240400Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms with 1-2"/hr rain
rates will persist into this evening. Where storms linger, 1-2" of
rain, with locally higher amounts, is possible. This may result in
flash flooding.

Discussion....The GOES-E visible imagery this afternoon shows
expansive Cu/Cb development across northern NM and southern CO.
This cloud cover is accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms noted via the regional radar mosaic. Radar trends
suggest these storms are moving very little across the higher
terrain, and several FFWs are currently in effect across the
region.

Thermodynamics are impressive, and will continue to support
convective development into the evening. The 18Z U/A sounding from
KABQ measured a PW of 1.14 inches, well above the 90th percentile
according to the SPC sounding climatology, which when paired with
SPC RAP analyzed MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg across the High Plains
is helping to support the heavy rain this afternoon. MRMS 1-hr
rainfall has been as high as 1.5 inches in a few cells across the
higher terrain, and these types of rates are forecast to continue
(HREF 20-30% chance for 1"/hr rainfall through ~03Z).

Forcing for ascent will continue into these thermodynamics for
several more hours, supporting the temporal duration of these
higher rain rates progged by the HREF. Although mid-level
shortwave ridging will gradually develop across western CO/NM, a
weak trough is likely to persist into the High Plains. At the same
time, 700mb flow will remain out of the east, transporting greater
moisture into the higher terrain, while mean wind progged by both
the SPC RAP and measured via the 18Z KABQ sounding remains out of
the W/NW at just around 10 kts. This suggests that in the weakly
forced environment, storms will initiate and move slowly over the
terrain, but may eventually drop E/SE with storm
mergers/collisions driving locally more intense rainfall and
chaotic storm motions. Where this occurs, 1-2" of rainfall with
locally higher amounts are possible (10% chance for 3"/6hrs from
the HREF). If any of these slow moving cells move across
vulnerable terrain, urban areas, or burn scars, flash flooding
impacts could result.


Weiss

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9VG03lmgiuAE79LY8EOy9TabkKByQt61pwbWx7fRwMaFKLuNISUicj97yUPDpCPAnrCX=
nLPhMjrSuuhC5ClnsVulhRM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...GJT...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40010577 39950343 39230229 38330209 37500240=20
            36860301 35690355 35050388 34720441 34670519=20
            34860569 36130631 37140645 38130636 39080611=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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