Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1764
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 23 2025 20:44:32

ACUS11 KWNS 232044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232043=20
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-232245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1764
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Colorado...southeast
Wyoming...and far western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232043Z - 232245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may produce a few severe gusts and some marginally
severe hail across parts of northeastern Colorado, southeast
Wyoming, and far western Nebraska this afternoon. A watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level clouds from morning convection have been slow
to clear portions of northeastern Colorado, and so heating has been
delayed, which has led to some residual inhibition. Despite this, a
narrow corridor of heating along the mountains has allowed storms to
percolate along the Front Range this afternoon in a post-frontal
upslope flow regime. These storms are well south of the strongest
mid-level flow, and therefore deep-layer shear is relatively weak.
Because of this, multicell clusters are expected to be the dominant
storm mode. In addition, the environment has some mid-level dry air
and steep lapse rates, which may lead to a threat for severe gusts
with the strongest clusters. Some hail is possible with these storms
given low freezing levels, but the lack of deep-layer shear and the
multicell storm mode may limit the severe hail risk with these
storms.

...Supinie/Smith.. 07/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!87PhGtEUXxmrYP3NOXEsLFumGTzhIzfsyslgEnpnOwCrYPqEcTNGyCIWJEcYAZJrQk4JcCVbe=
jzSxUZ0nFO4vvMjQKU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40680557 41640546 41850488 41770385 41080351 40040356
            39160367 38950484 39590547 40680557=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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