Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1763
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 23 2025 19:55:14

ACUS11 KWNS 231955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231954=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-232200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast MN into north-central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231954Z - 232200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms may pose a risk of damaging
wind gusts across southeast Minnesota into portions of
northern/central Wisconsin the next few hours. Area is being
monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
developing/intensifying this afternoon along/just ahead of the
southward-advancing cold front. This activity is tracking along a
differential heating zone and within the strong instability gradient
oriented across north-central WI. Strong heating ahead of these
storms and dewpoints in the mid 70s have allowed inhibition to
weaken. This area is on the edges of more favorable deep shear, but
20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes may be sufficient for organized
clusters/small bows given strong instability. Modified RAP forecast
soundings and regional VWP data show somewhat small but favorably
curved low-level hodographs. Low-level shear will remain modest, but
given the very moist and unstable boundary layer, a tornado or two
also could occur, in addition to damaging wind gusts. This area is
being monitored for possible watch issuance.

...Leitman/Smith.. 07/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5fBtQbS4WWxg9eZQsSHBTHFS7FZRGdvJoq0_kdo6C9HD1ejvk-5mMZt0ldXINHaNVkUX6nAKo=
fRvxGCbeJtBQ2WQ_d4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44818795 44578908 44109197 43689420 43809439 44069426
            44489367 44969260 45339151 45599006 45718840 45258769
            44818795=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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