Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 23 2025 19:30:14

ACUS03 KWNS 231930
SWODY3
SPC AC 231929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging winds
across the Northeast, northern Mid-Atlantic, and Upper Ohio Valley
on Friday. The development of an organized cluster of storms with
potential to produce severe wind gusts is also possible across parts
of the northern Great Plains.

....Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Upper OH Valley...
A broad midlevel trough will move gradually eastward across Quebec
during the day, while a related cold front advances southward across
the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. Broad large-scale ascent
accompanying the midlevel trough and diurnal heating amid rich
boundary-layer moisture will promote widely scattered thunderstorms
along the front during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of deep-layer
shear and a moderately unstable air mass will favor bands of
organized storms (including the potential for supercell structures)
-- with a risk of damaging wind gusts.

....Northern Great Plains...
Within a belt of broad westerly flow aloft, an embedded midlevel
impulse should track eastward across the northern Plains during the
day. In response, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms will
pose a risk for locally severe gusts and large hail over the
northern High Plains -- given steepening deep-layer lapse rates and
around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. With time, upscale growth into
an organized cluster is possible as storms impinge on richer
boundary-layer moisture and a broad southerly low-level jet over the
Dakotas.

....Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
Guidance indicates the potential for a convectively augmented
midlevel perturbation to develop east-northeastward across the
central Plains, with related clusters of preceding convection.
Associated cloud debris and poor midlevel lapse rates limit
confidence in the severe risk at this time, though probabilities may
eventually be needed as forecast confidence increases.

...Weinman.. 07/23/2025

$$

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