Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1761
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 23 2025 19:07:14

ACUS11 KWNS 231907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231906=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-232100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...parts of NE into far southeast SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231906Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storm potential will increase through the afternoon
with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. Area is being
monitored for possible watch issuance across parts of the discussion
area.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are intensifying across western
NE in the post-frontal upslope regime, and within a zone of strong
differential heating across the surface boundary. A corridor of
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is noted across western NE, increasing with
eastward extent (up to 3500 J/kg MLCAPE) into deeper boundary-layer
moisture and stronger heating. Convection will likely increase in
coverage along the surface boundary oriented southwest to northeast
across NE over the next couple of hours as inhibition continues to
rapidly erode. While vertical shear is not strong and weakens with
southward extent, effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt should
support organized convection moving into a moderately to strongly
unstable downstream airmass. Modest midlevel lapse rates and
somewhat warm 500 mb temperatures (around -6 to -8 C) may temper
large hail potential, but isolated hail to near 1 inch will be
possible. With time, clustering may occur, with steepened low-level
lapse rates and strong DCAPE suggesting strong to severe wind gusts
will be the main hazard with storms this afternoon into early
evening.

Convective trends are being monitored and a watch may be needed
sometime this afternoon.

...Leitman/Smith.. 07/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9t1mwSp_KEIC8SC8qGY1w3rE11mZijK_a4TfVqcxVaDySjlKo_WIyvc6gQZhBYYV27Tdfi01h=
13wNTHgzW9hgqbAlSc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   40730204 41090218 42010119 42819950 42949748 42849664
            42489641 41999672 41129750 40509859 40189993 40130088
            40430167 40730204=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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