Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 23 2025 13:47:20 AWUS01 KWNH 231346 FFGMPD WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231815- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0784 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 945 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Areas affected...eastern Dakotas into central to northern MN and far northwestern WI Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 231344Z - 231815Z Summary...Brief periods of training heavy rain may result in isolated to widely scattered areas of flash flooding from the eastern Dakotas into central/northern MN and far northwestern WI over the next 5 hours. Areas of training will be capable of producing 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates. Discussion...1330Z regional radar imagery showed an eastward propagating cluster of thunderstorms over north-central MN, positioned at the leading edge of a larger/messy convective regime over the eastern Dakotas into western and southern MN. An elongated SW to NE oriented outflow boundary/front was observed at the leading edge of the Dakotas/northern MN thunderstorms while recent convective development was noted over west-central MN at the leading edge of a 30-40 kt low level jet over southern MN, but these winds have been weakening and veering over the past couple of hours. Aloft, the region was situated beneath the right-entrance region of a RAP estimated 130 kt upper level jet in Manitoba/Quebec. Regarding instability, SPC mesoanalysis data from 13Z and 12Z RAOBs from ABR and MPX showed a narrow axis of weak to largely uninhibited MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg from northeastern SD into north-central MN, along and just ahead of the outflow boundary. Continued thunderstorm development is expected over the next several hours given convergence at the leading edge of the low level jet, outflow boundary interactions and upstream thunderstorms over the Dakotas, out ahead of a low to mid-level shortwave trough and surface front. Continued weakening and veering of the low level flow is forecast while areas of thunderstorms maintain over the region. An overall evolution toward the east is anticipated through 18Z but with periods of training. Given the high PW environment (hovering around 2 inches) and instability in place, potential for 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates should easily be attainable within any areas of training that occur. Total additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3+ inches will be possible, but these totals should remain isolated to perhaps widely scattered in nature, possibly resulting in flash flooding. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_PY4oiFbVC0YpHISGL0Bze8Ct-PJCeDUTpwS027aGhQOE5F0Xjz_T5IpOnvZ6fsyrKn2= CQHn3dQdSuWVpgKx3cJXwPc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...DLH...FGF...MPX... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC... LAT...LON 48178973 47778943 46829040 46109195 45509347=20 45189484 45079632 45249729 46089721 46649598=20 47209426 47749288 47999170=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .