Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1759
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 23 2025 12:28:54

ACUS11 KWNS 231228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231228=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...eastern SD and western MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231228Z - 231400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts may persist this morning with
multiple messy clusters across eastern South Dakota. Watch issuance
in the near-term is uncertain with increasing likelihood towards
midday.

DISCUSSION...A small but persistent cluster that has produced a
focused swath of measured severe gusts across southwest into central
SD has weakened in terms of reflectivity structure and IR cloud top
warming. The downstream front has oscillated southward, suggesting
that this cluster will persist to the cool side of this front and
likely impinge on weak downstream convection towards the SD/ND/MN
border area. Meanwhile, a west/east-oriented convective band
emanating northward across southern SD has produced a couple
measured severe gusts at mesonet sites. This convection will
probably evolve more northeastward into late morning and could also
congeal with the post-frontal convection to the north. Overall messy
and complex convective mode, along with the time of day, suggests
that severe potential may remain sporadic and disorganized. More
positive cold pool merging could occur into western MN towards
midday as greater downstream insolation occurs across
central/southern MN.

...Grams/Gleason.. 07/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4cJjhgeJFfKPQdaEHfXu0bcvpPdf5DflpJ5YrIDRQfMYAjF84LzxZoqgO155dEdLvNaq-emm9=
34cGFpFsVUody4GoZQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   43639928 44209973 44859968 45269915 45629796 45919683
            46049591 45949557 45479549 44839576 43649762 43639928=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.