Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 23 2025 05:49:25 ACUS01 KWNS 230549 SWODY1 SPC AC 230547 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST TO UPPER MICHIGAN... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and potentially a tornado risk are expected across the middle Missouri River Valley and Upper Midwest to upper Great Lakes, mainly this afternoon and evening. ....Middle Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest to Upper Michigan... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early today near and, more so, behind/north of the surface front extending generally southwest-northeastward across South Dakota toward south-central Minnesota. A few strong/severe storms may occur within this regime early today across South Dakota/Minnesota, but a more appreciable severe potential should evolve later in the afternoon as heating and destabilization occur ahead of the front and any residual outflows/cloud debris. The net result should be the most aggressive heating/destabilization across southeast/east-central South Dakota, across the southern third of Minnesota into central Wisconsin, with 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE plausible within this corridor. While evolution/disposition of early-day convection are not entirely certain, a more supercell-favorable environment with a tornado risk could evolve this afternoon into evening across eastern Minnesota into west-central/north-central Wisconsin within the low-level jet axis and near/east of a surface wave. Otherwise, intensifying thunderstorms and organizing clusters with damaging winds as the most probable severe-weather hazard are expected to be primary scenario regionally during the late afternoon and evening. ....Central and northern High Plains... Within a post-frontal environment, east-northeasterly low-level winds will exist beneath moderately strong westerlies aloft to yield relatively long hodographs, with generally 40+ kt effective shear from the Black Hills/I-90 vicinity northward. This will coincide with moderate diurnal destabilization, particularly across interior/eastern Wyoming into southeast Montana and parts of the western Dakotas. Isolated instances of large hail may occur along with the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts, particularly if some east/southeastward-moving clusters develop/semi-organize during the evening. ...Guyer/Wendt.. 07/23/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .