Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 23 2025 00:44:57 AWUS01 KWNH 230044 FFGMPD NMZ000-230600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0782 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 844 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...Central New Mexico Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 230043Z - 230600Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms across central New Mexico will expand and move slowly/chaotically through the evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely within this convection, leading to 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic across central New Mexico this afternoon shows widespread showers and thunderstorms moving slowly across the area. This activity is occurring within a narrow plume of 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE overlapping PWs that are 1 to 1.2 inches as analyzed by the SPC RAP and measured via the 18Z ABQ U/A sounding, which is above the 90th percentile for the date according to the SPC sounding climatology. Despite the modest instability, the robust PWs are producing a thermodynamic environment that is supporting radar-estimated rainfall rates as high as 1.5"/hr from KABX, resulting in hourly rainfall of 1.25-1.5" in some areas as measured via MRMS. Forcing for ascent into these thermodynamics is being provided both by weak diffluence in the right rear quadrant of an upper jet streak, and subtle PVA/height falls downstream of a shortwave lifting northward into the area. Evaluation of the recent radar trends depicts storms that are generally of the pulse variety, which is supported by effective bulk shear that is less than 20 kts. Despite that, clusters of cells are developing, but this is in response to storm mergers and boundary collisions from the numerous pulse type thunderstorms. As the shortwave lifts slowly northward this evening, coverage of thunderstorms will likely increase, leading to additional collisions/mergers, and this is supported by many available CAMs including the HRRR forced UA WRF. This behavior within generally weak flow (0-6km mean winds of just 5 kts) will result in slow and chaotic motion focused across central New Mexico, and with rain rates potentially exceeding 1"/hr (40% chance from the HREF, up to 0.5" in 15 min from the HRRR), this could result in spots of 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts possible. These intense rain rates, especially in response to the slow and chaotic motion, will pose an increasing risk for flash flooding the next few hours. In some locations, multiple rounds of storms may occur, which will additionally enhance the threat for rapid runoff. Although FFG exceedance probabilities are modest (around 20%), convection is expected to remain widespread for several hours, and where storms move across burn scars or urban areas, flash flooding could result. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5vQaP7S4RcRvCjuTNqD0R-5EgeCEcCDkeqby5FCbew7nUDQoT8yLkg6LPTOjhgSRSlAB= PMUZE1UKaIfecRTJXjIztQY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 36190559 35880484 35460447 34920437 33780437=20 32850469 32770498 32910541 33130612 33540702=20 34570751 35340729 35940671 36130634=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .