Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1757
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 23 2025 00:28:13

ACUS11 KWNS 230027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230027=20
IAZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1757
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230027Z - 230200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong winds may accompany storms. The strongest
storms could show weak low-level rotation.

DISCUSSION...An MCV in the mid-Missouri Valley has promoted widely
scattered storms in parts of southern Iowa. These storms may persist
into mid-evening. A very moist airmass at the surface is supporting
2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear remains quite modest under the
upper-level ridge, though the MCV has contributed to local value of
20-30 kts. The main hazard with these storms will be locally
damaging winds as storms develop and collapse. KDMX velocity data
has indicated weak low-level rotation with a couple of the stronger
storms. Area VAD data shows very weak low-level SRH even with the
MCV influence. With the 850 mb jet expected to increase farther
west, this SRH is not expected to improve this evening. At most, a
brief tornado could occur, though this threat is conditional.

...Wendt/Hart.. 07/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5q5szBCg3AMmiFrD290ShDNc8a13ZzOYclAdYmuBU2t6CcDkQPzyhnVGhVA2Hrq6nNmrv_8yg=
JZbFyOdri_NzQUCua8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   41209433 41429432 41829418 42079348 41819187 41349146
            40829167 40659204 40609231 40949283 41079390 41209433=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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