Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1755
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 22 2025 20:00:50

ACUS11 KWNS 222000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222000=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1755
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...northern WY into southeast MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 222000Z - 222200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across parts of southern Montana and northern Wyoming this afternoon
and evening.

DISCUSSION...Occasionally robust thunderstorms have developed over
higher terrain in portions of southern MT and northern WY. Weak
inhibition remains downstream over the adjacent high Plains, but
additional heating and increasing ascent should allow for storms to
become sustained further from the terrain with time into late
afternoon. Regional VWP data shows elongated, straight hodographs
amid steep midlevel lapse rates. While instability is muted due to
the drier, post-frontal low-level airmass, MLCAPE will still be
sufficient to sustain updrafts. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms posing a risk for hail (possibly up to 2 inches,
especially over far southeast MT) will be possible over the next
several hours. Trends will be monitored and a severe thunderstorm
watch may be needed for parts of the discussion area later this
afternoon.

...Leitman/Smith.. 07/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-Y65kLeIV3z6m82i5pGNnhxhbkvgbCNjSWJADjqsL3Sj4zB4pujMsRcXjMT8Eq3-QxX5Xy7bT=
sKyk7DPFEl3OngtQB8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

LAT...LON   45781046 46181020 46620976 46870927 46890803 46750614
            46530494 46260428 46040411 45650405 44750412 44330490
            44020652 43980783 43990872 44310889 44910939 45321021
            45781046=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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