Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 22 2025 19:25:19

ACUS03 KWNS 221925
SWODY3
SPC AC 221924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE....

....SUMMARY...
A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with
damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may
also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into
northeast New Mexico.

....From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes...
A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel
winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate
instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with
storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between
18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the
moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts
during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid
MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds
persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe.

....Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM...
Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually
spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to
east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain
relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models
indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon
through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into
the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be
possible, in addition to marginal hail.

...Jewell.. 07/22/2025

$$

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