Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 22 2025 18:55:54 AWUS01 KWNH 221855 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-230000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0778 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...central/northern NM into southern/central CO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 221854Z - 230000Z SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms from central NM to central CO will have an increased chance of producing flash flooding due to slow movement through the early evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected. DISCUSSION...1830Z visible satellite and lightning imagery from GOES East showed the early stages of thunderstorms development underway from northern NM into southern/central CO along the higher terrain of the Rockies. PW values have increased up to 0.1 inches compared to 24 hours ago according to GPS-based PW sensors in NM and CO, and the 17Z ABQ sounding depicted a similar profile to yesterday, albeit with slightly warmer temperatures in the 400-500 mb layer (lower CAPE). However, one notable difference compared to yesterday, is a broader region of weaker deeper layer mean flow with 850-300 mb mean layer winds of less than 5 kt extending through a broad region from southwestern NM into central CO...caught between mid to upper level troughing off of the southern CA coast and a closed low in West TX. While moisture anomaly values across the region are not high end, being 1 to 2 standard deviations above average, near the peak climatological max in PW values for the year is noteworthy. Thunderstorm development is expected to follow the typical diurnal trend with a continued increase in coverage over the higher terrain through 21/22Z, followed by development off of the mountains into the High Plains. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected to occur with the slow cell motions, and sub-hourly rates of 1-2 inches in about 30 minutes will also be possible. Subsequent development from thunderstorm generated outflows/mergers may also contribute to intense bursts of higher rain that drop off after an hour, but perhaps that will be enough time to cause a few runoff issues across the region. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6i5AxTTZNGeGEvKPBtXsinnR6SiSmrpw7TucYXS5YrIlnWt7IdCI920v0j-pPnIDgV53= FTAhyEETkwnyTvMr_5fKN_g$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...PUB... ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 39840436 39250366 37860357 35730436 34440501=20 34580617 35250708 37170735 39110644=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .