Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1754
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 22 2025 18:55:50

ACUS11 KWNS 221855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221855=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-222100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...Southern South Carolina into eastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221855Z - 222100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next
several hours across southern South Carolina and into eastern
Georgia. While the overall severe threat will remain low, a few
damaging downbursts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery and regional echo top data shows steady
intensification of convection near Charlseton, SC associated with a
developing sea breeze boundary. Additionally, the early stages of
mature convection are noted along a weak arcing confluence band from
central SC into east-central GA. Strong insolation downstream of the
developing storms has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 90s
within a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s dewpoints). This has not
only eliminated any appreciable inhibition, but has allowed
low-level lapse rates to steepen to around 8 C/km and MLCAPE to
increase to around 3000 J/kg downstream over southern SC and eastern
GA. Flow within the lowest 8 km remains very weak (around 15 knots
or less) per regional VWPs, which will limit storm organization and
longevity. However, focused thunderstorm initiation along the
confluence zone and/or sea breeze should promote cold pool
consolidation and the emergence of a handful of weak convective
clusters that will migrate into the regional CAPE maximum by late
afternoon. As this occurs, convective intensity should increase with
an attendant rise in the probability for damaging to severe
downburst winds (most likely between 45-60 mph) through early
evening. Such downbursts will likely remain sufficiently isolated to
preclude watch issuance.

...Moore/Smith.. 07/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8nxrExB6GSEKNVKhEGKYbKO51T3fILXf1y_K6U8FzZzs0ADsp9zS6iFafS1kE5OFvn83kI-_9=
F_SftmhtUkck5jcgPo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   33908187 33448300 33028334 32628353 32188354 31748338
            31228297 31048249 31068200 31198167 31368150 31858124
            32278092 32548059 32778020 32877991 32977966 33077952
            33197948 33367950 33487963 33657991 33888036 33978075
            33998132 33908187=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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