Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1753
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 22 2025 18:52:29

ACUS11 KWNS 221852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221851=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-221945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...north-central MN into far northwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221851Z - 221945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop this
afternoon, although this potential is uncertain. Marginally severe
hail and wind could be possible if stronger storms can emerge.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm over central MN has shown some
propensity for intensification over the past 30 minutes. This
activity is moving into a downstream airmass that has heated into
the upper 70s to low 80s with weakening inhibition. Modified 17z RAP
forecast soundings suggest that if further intensification occurs,
favorable deep shear and increasing instability could support a
severe storm capable of producing large hail and strong/severe
gusts. Given early day convection and lingering downstream cloud
cover, it is unclear how this activity may evolve over the next
couple of hours, or if additional storms will develop. Visible
satellite imagery does show some deepening cumulus beneath the
mid/high level clouds across northeast MN into far northwest WI, and
trends will continued to be monitored for further storm development.
Given uncertainty and impacts from early-day convection, a watch is
not currently expected.

...Leitman/Smith.. 07/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8uIqIzIpJfkePvHHzkUtg5EiRtn-lbRFuqFTyB6r5IsZjILjilGSIbLZtZf_2K1qmkzL_IA7N=
YMIqxhVMvo-nAPkkng$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   45659435 45919482 46149490 46449489 46679459 46769399
            46709231 46549173 46229173 46049190 45839242 45659344
            45659435=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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