Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 22 2025 08:52:18

ACUS48 KWNS 220852
SWOD48
SPC AC 220850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance suggests that strongest destabilization
(including large potential instability) by next weekend into early
next week will become focused once again from the lee of the
northern U.S. Rockies across and northeast of the middle and lower
Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest.  This is forecast to be
supported by seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content,
beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates near the
southwestern periphery of an increasingly northwesterly regime,
between building mid-level ridging along/east of the Rockies and
another significant low digging southeast of the central Canadian
Arctic latitudes through Hudson Bay.

By next Sunday into Monday, it appears possible that this
environment could become supportive of the evolution of one or two
organizing, east-southeastward propagating convective systems.
However, the forcing for any such development remains unclear, and
probably will be tied to sub-synoptic perturbations with very low
predictability at this extended range.

...Kerr.. 07/22/2025

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