Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 21 2025 23:16:49

AWUS01 KWNH 212316
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-220515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0774
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Areas affected...North-central to northeastern Kansas and far
southeastern Neb

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212315Z - 220515Z

Summary...A region of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
is expected to continue into the evening across portions of
north-central Kansas, as slow-moving storms develop along a
stationary surface front.  These storms are likely to produce
rainfall rates of 1-3 in/hr, with higher rates possible.  This may
result in areas of flash flooding.=20

Discussion...Accentuated by convection that developed earlier in
the afternoon, surface observations indicate an west-east oriented
boundary, with a strong temperature gradient, extending across
north-central Kansas.  KUEX shows storm coverage continuing to
increase along and south of the boundary, with rainfall rates over
2 in/hr within some of the stronger storms.  These storms are
supported by a pool of deep moisture (PWs at or above 2 inches)
and MUCAPEs above 3000 J/kg.  This moist and unstable air mass is
being fed by 20-30 kt southerly low level inflow.  Meanwhile, an
upper level jet streak centered to the north is helping produce
larger-scale ascent across the region.  Across Kansas, the mean
flow is relatively weak - supporting slow storm motions that are
raising the potential for heavy rates and flooding concerns.=20

The environment is expected to remain favorable for slow-moving,
heavy rainfall producing storms well into the evening before these
storms are expected to eventually propagate further south.  Before
waning and/or moving out of the region, neighborhood probabilities
from both the HREF and RRFS indicate that additional amounts of 2
inches or more are likely over the next 6 hours, raising flash
flooding concerns within the highlighted area.=20=20=20

Pereira

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6cvOECmgVNSd7W5Zti9-aLzXom_Xq9JruUvfOnXO8hCyqVLYe1hTv9jL8YNhNM8MqWPL=
OMaluxX9GdN4mGiavhlKRqc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40239814 39929607 39299552 38829592 38889751=20
            38729825 38619885 38599944 38840024 39659969=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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