Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1745
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 21 2025 03:59:21

ACUS11 KWNS 210358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210358=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-210530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1745
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Montana/southern North Dakota/northern
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531...534...

Valid 210358Z - 210530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531, 534
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind/hail potential continues through late evening
and possibly into the overnight from southeast Montana across
southern North Dakota and northern South Dakota. Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 531/534 continue, and the southern North Dakota/northern
South Dakota border vicinity is being monitored for a possible
additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Multiple storm clusters with a history of
severe-caliber winds and/or hail persist from far southeast Montana
(Carter County) to near the North Dakota/South Dakota border
vicinity as of 1050pm CDT/950pm MDT. Steady boundary-layer cooling
has occurred over the past couple of hours, and storms should ingest
increasingly elevated inflow over the next few hours. However,
existing storm organization and modest low-level jet influence
should tend to sustain storms east-southeastward along the regional
instability gradient. At least some severe-caliber wind/hail
potential will probably continue into the overnight, and potentially
into areas to the east of the current Watches 531/534 across far
southern North Dakota and northern South Dakota.

...Guyer.. 07/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7uWLd-adKqCtcFbXJRDF4V3GM04J772MWkCsygpyw0BX0-wQSvWGXItu-hyxpc0wchISWEdiF=
KHtZQ81oYojJXfO8iw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   45740506 46320426 46700255 46780055 45899863 44999936
            44950195 45090437 45740506=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.