Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 21 2025 01:02:29 AWUS01 KWNH 210102 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-210600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0769 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Areas affected...Northern and Eastern KY...Southwest VA...Southern WV Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 210100Z - 210600Z SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening. Sensitive/moist antecedent conditions coupled with locally high rainfall rates and some cell-training concerns will likely promote some additional areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with regional radar data shows a general northwest to southeast oriented axis of broken shower and thunderstorm activity extending across northern to eastern KY and down into far southern WV and southwest VA. Meanwhile, additional convection with more organization to it is seen off to the northwest across southern IN. Sufficient levels of early evening instability remain in place across the region along with surface moisture convergence into an outflow boundary for convective sustenance at least through much of the evening time frame. MLCAPE values across central and eastern KY are still as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and there continues to be some elevated shear profiles with as much as 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear. The combination of this along with PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches will continue to support very high rainfall rates capable at least for the next few hours of still reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. Additional rainfall totals where any additional cell-training takes place may reach as high as 3 to 4 inches. Some of the best potential for this may tend to be over northern KY given the more organized upstream convection over southern IN that will likely continue to advance southeastward into northern KY over the next few hours. Given the convective trends and lingering moist/unstable environment, some additional areas of flash flooding will be likely this evening before conditions then improve later tonight. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6o-8YTxoxSlKkc9MOnG2kUVwrMjgaTTEoDIN2_VZOL2BYGlg4lt6xfbwOXBax_rUFTXM= zeQuq2TIq8xpX8M8BsdxT1E$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...RLX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 39048492 38938366 38558210 37948067 37418044=20 36748070 36568137 36718252 37608422 38288520=20 38728527=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .