Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1743
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 21 2025 00:38:47

ACUS11 KWNS 210038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210038=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-210145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1743
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Areas affected...South-central South Dakota/north-central Nebraska

Concerning...Tornado Watch 532...

Valid 210038Z - 210145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 532 continues.

SUMMARY...A relatively focused potential for large hail and a
tornado continues with supercells across south-central South Dakota
and north-central Nebraska, centered on Todd County, South Dakota
and eastern Cherry County, Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...After storm mergers, an intense supercell with history
of baseball-size hail continues to approach the South
Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity in Todd County, SD as of 730pm CDT,
approximately 15-20 miles northwest of Valentine, NE. Continued
south-southeastward storm persistence seems likely into Cherry
County, potentially including the immediate Valentine vicinity.
Other severe storms persist farther south in Cherry County, with
other splitting supercells near/north of I-90 east of Phillip, SD.=20

The ambient environment remains rather moist with near 70F surface
dewpoints, with some strengthening of storm
propagation/sustenance-favorable southeasterly winds within the
boundary layer. Large hail and some tornado potential will likely
persist for a couple more hours as storms/right-moving supercells
persist slowly southeastward within the instability axis. Recent
WSR-88D VWP data from North Platte substantiates at least 150 m2/s2
0-1 km SRH, with some additional increase expected over the next
hour or two.

...Guyer.. 07/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Nun7_b6S864GZKTU7oLk_KNQxZw18FmsanWZ2L-kvG6C1aNbhDymwVvwGZaBhS2R2AUvSj9j=
F-P4qYlABqD_OekSdQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   44140144 44360089 43420043 42980019 42419976 42100003
            42230134 43130138 44140144=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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